Draper: bitcoin will take 5% of world currency market by 2022
The legendary bitcoin investor comments ‘gold is so gone’ and JPM Coin ‘cracks me up’.
In a Q&A session with YouTuber Crypto Wendy, Tim Draper – a famous Bitcoin and crypto bull who bought thousands of BTC from the US government in a Silk Road auctions – offered his belief that bitcoin would expand to account for at least 5% of market share for all currencies by 2022-2023.
‘$250,000 for bitcoin in 2022 is what I predicted… and that’s only a 5% market share of all the currency in the world. So I can see why people who are true believers are holding on.’
This would be powered by his belief that ‘gold is so gone’: as means of storing and transferring value, bitcoin is superior by design and growing fast, making comparing the two ‘nonsense’.
Draper notes that, in a bear market, people are able to focus and build infrastructure, rather than ‘missing out on their missions and [getting] distracted by the shiny object’. When the market turns down, everybody goes back to work and ‘great things happen’.
Chief among the developments that need to happen, he says, are ways of moving bitcoin around – something that is going to be really easy in the future, with various projects that will make bitcoin easier to use. Payment processing service OpenNode is ‘growing like a weed’, making it easy to spend bitcoin wherever you want, including micro-transactions, and also enabling high throughput.
Draper is by no means a Bitcoin Maximalist, and is positive about a wide range of cryptocurrencies. In a downturn, he says, ‘great crypto rises to the top.’ The teams behind these projects are critical. ‘Who is behind these cryptocurrencies and how good are they? Look at that and you’ll probably be ok.’
In terms of mass adoption, Draper notes that many people use bitcoin already, for a wide range of purposes. But there are inevitably market cycles:
‘it’s got to go through a process where people get more excited about the possibility; then price stays down and finally people realise the possibilities were greater than they ever imagined.’
The same was true of the internet, he suggests. But BTC already makes good sense for mass-payments (he uses the example of George Lucas paying the thousands of extras who appear in the credits of his films – bitcoin would make far more sense than the legacy financial system) and overseas payments.
Meanwhile he is less bullish on corporate crypto, stating that JPM Coin ‘cracks me up’ and comparing Jamie Dimon’s emotional process to the stages of grief, with denial and anger over crypto finally giving way to acceptance. Facebook’s coin may be different, but they are probably ‘Five years behind.’
Finally, concerning whether the bear market is over, he states: ‘The bear market is over is when people stop asking. That’s when everything starts going up… My guess is that the market is going to be flat for a while.’