Bitcoin ‘Consensus Pump’ in Effect?
Correlation does not equal causation and bitcoin prices are rising with or without the Consensus conference.
Consensus, the major annual crypto conference is coming up, bringing together the biggest companies and influencers in the blockchain space. Even for those members of the crypto community who won’t be attending, there’s a reason for watching developments closely: the fabled ‘Consensus pump’.
Traditionally – and ‘traditionally’ here means ‘for three out of the past four years’ – bitcoin’s price has risen sharply in the weeks following the conference. Lots of key tech and new developments are unveiled at the conference and people leave the event enthused about bitcoin and crypto. The media puts out a slew of positive stories, and lots of people buy in. Consensus is a Coindesk event after all.
However, correlation does not equal causation and past performance does not predict future performance. Bitcoin will be just fine without Consensus, though that won’t stop the crypto world from drawing their own conclusions.
Let’s leave aside the fact that we have a sample size of just four previous years, and the fact that last year bitcoin and altcoins had a terrible two months post-Consensus. Bitcoin has only been around ten years and, on the macro scale, it’s been growing all that time. Pick any two dates in the history of bitcoin and the chances are that bitcoin’s price at the later one was higher than it was for the first one. To put it more simply, the wiggly line goes up and down but overall it keeps rising.