Bitcoin: 2019 price action eerily like bitcoin 2015
If you’ve been around long enough, you might recognise the bitcoin price action from 2019. It’s eerily similar to 2015.
We love our time travel books and movies. HG Wells’ classic The Time Machine. The Back to the Future trilogy (not so much the third one though). Audrey Niffenegger’s The Time Traveler’s Wife. The introduction of a Time Turner in Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban and Stephen King’s absolutely outstanding 11.22.63.
If you could travel back to 2015, very likely one of the first things you would do would be to buy bitcoins. Or rather, you would absolutely back the truck up on bitcoins. Of course time travel is not possible – yet, under the known laws of physics at least. Sorry. But you might be able to do the next best thing: learn from the past.
This is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading is, like time travel, a risky business and best left to professionals.
Take a look at how things have lined up over the years:
- Crash to the low: $155 (January 2015) / $3,100 (December 2018)
- Bottom out at 200-week moving average: $210 (2015) / $3,100 (2018)
- Reaction rally: $300 / $4,200
- Return to the 200 WMA, retest and a higher low: $210 (April 2015) / $3,300 (January 2019)
- A break of the resistance established by the earlier reaction rally and a higher high: $320 (July 2015) / $5,600 (April 2019)
- Rejection at the 50-week moving average – broadly coinciding with a Golden Cross on the daily chart: July 2015 / April 2019.
In 2015, that rejection saw prices fall back to the 200-week moving average at around $230 once again. Price bumped along that gently-rising MA line until October. Along the way, the daily moving averages formed a Death Cross, and then re-crossed in a second Golden Cross. After that, BTC took off and never looked back.
What next for the bitcoin price?
In 2019, we’re waiting for the end of this scenario to play out. Will prices fall back to resistance ($4,200) or even the 200 WMA (around $3,600)? Will we see a Death Cross, which will happen if the price stays in the low $4k range for long enough? Do we have another three months of bear market before we see a convincing uptrend form?
The pattern of 2015 says ‘yes’ to all of these. 2019 may have ideas of its own, of course – but the parallels so far have been striking.