2019 bitcoin looks a lot like 2015
The market is following an established pattern as BTC recovers from its long bear market and prepares for the next cycle.
Markets are unpredictable in the short term, but on the macro scale they often display specific characteristics and patterns. We have already noted the close parallels between the end of the 2014-2015 bear market and the end of the 2018 bear market, namely:
- Crash to the low: $155 (January 2015) / $3,100 (December 2018)
- Bottom out at 200-week moving average: $210 (2015) / $3,100 (2018)
- Reaction rally: $300 / $4,200
- Return to the 200 WMA, retest and a higher low: $210 (April 2015) / $3,300 (January 2019)
- A break of the resistance established by the earlier reaction rally and a higher high: $320 (July 2015) / $5,600 (April 2019)
- Rejection at the 50-week moving average – broadly coinciding with a Golden Cross on the daily chart: July 2015 / April 2019.
Are we re-living November 2015?
We’re now looking at a period of time equivalent to November 2015. At this point, bitcoin put in a parabolic rally, breaking above its prior high of $318 and up to an unsustainable $500. The candle for the first week of November 2015 is a classic shooting star doji, with a long wick to the upside. The next weekly candle was red, bringing the price back down to $300 and crucially, closing at $319 – above the prior high it had broken with the spike up. In other words, resistance was retested as support, and held. That was extremely bullish, and the rest is history. It was the last time we saw $300.
And now we have – potentially – a similar scenario. Bitcoin has rallied through resistance, and put in an unsustainable parabolic rise to $8,400. A pullback necessarily occurred. We don’t yet know how this week will end but it’s quite possible that next week will see another red candle. If the pattern repeats – that is, if the market is strong enough – then that will close above $6,000. And then it’s off to the races.
The standard disclaimers apply. This is not trading or investment advice, and this article is intended for information purposes only. The parallels between 2015 and 2019 have been striking so far, but that does not mean they have to continue.